In good news for investors and businesses, Uganda’s economy is projected to continue growing strongly, with gross domestic product (GDP) expected to reach the 66-billion-dollar mark (UGX250 trillion), up from the current 59.3 billion dollars.
Correspondingly, the strong growth is expected to increase income per capita to $1,338, up from the current $1,236.
The projections are stated in the National Budget Framework Paper for the 2026/27 financial year, presented before parliament by Henry Musasizi, the State Minister of Finance (General Duties).
In terms of purchasing power parity, Uganda’s GDP is projected to rise to $ 188 billion, up from the current $ 168.5 billion.
The NBFP states that Uganda’s macroeconomic outlook during the Fourth National Development Plan period of 2025 to 2030 will be driven by the following key objectives:
- Reducing poverty from 20.3% to 14%;
- Attaining double-digit economic growth to double the GDP;
- Creating an average of 884,962 new jobs annually;
- Price stability with inflation maintained within single digits at around 5%.
- Pursuing prudent fiscal policies to keep public debt below 50% of GDP in present value terms;
- Reduce fiscal deficit to 3%; and
- Focus efforts on increasing the revenue-to-GDP ratio to about 20%, up from 13%.
The NBFP outlines the 10-fold economic growth strategy, which aims at shifting Uganda’s economy into a higher growth trajectory, achieving an average growth rate of at least 8.3% annually, with double-digit growth expected at the onset of commercial oil production.
Under the strategy, the government targets doubling the size of the economy every five years, raising per capita income sixfold to about $7,000 (UGX24.8 million) by 2040.
The strategy also involves increasing the national savings to 40% of GDP, up from 20% as well as expanding exports to 50% of GDP.
The share of manufactured and medium-to-high products in exports is also expected to rise.
The strategy also plans to increase foreign direct investment inflows from the current 3.01 billion dollars to 50 billion dollars by 2040.
To achieve these targets, there would be a radical shift in conducting business, focusing on reforms aimed at cleaning up laws, policies, and regulations, environmental protection, linking up regional and cross-border value chains, skilling the workforce for the digital economy, and teaming up government systems to improve service delivery.
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